A Tale of Three Spreads I’m not talking about a mezze platter. In this macro-obsessed environment, I want to take a moment to focus on some less headline-worthy market indicators that can be important […]
Recession Angst Intensifying While performance across most assets has been less than inspiring thus far in 2022, there’s been a notable tone shift of late. Whereas inflation and monetary policy were the primary market […]
Running Out of Steam The opening paragraph of my 2022 Outlook, titled “Running into the Wind,” included this phrase: “As a runner, and one who actually prefers to run in less than ideal conditions because it […]
Raindrops on Rallies and Wobbly Conviction Since the S&P’s most recent low on June 16, the market has made an attempt at a rally. Despite being up about 4% in two weeks, the tape […]
One is the Loneliest Number Energy is the only sector in the S&P 500 that’s positive over 3-month, 6-month, and year-to-date periods. If we take that window back one year, the only other sectors […]
Tick, Tick, Boom These are historic times. We got another piece of data yesterday, but the puzzle is still not solved. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark policy rate by 75 basis points […]
Plenty of Room at the Hotel Cash-ifornia Spoiler alert: a lot of money has flowed out of risk assets this year. As of the end of May, more than $200 billion has come out […]
Casting a Wider Net The new term du jour is “bear market rally,” and the exercise du jour is trying to determine if any uptrends we see in markets are simply brief rallies in […]
Slowdown Scaries There are a number of indicators that attempt to predict a slowdown before it starts, one of which is the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator Index, which is an aggregate measure of […]
It’s Not Over Till It’s Over The good news is that when this rough patch is over, we can look back on it as another history lesson and use it as a guide for […]
Sticky Situation We all hoped for a cooler April Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, and technically we got one — 8.3% year-over-year vs. March’s 40-year high of 8.5%. The temptation to call peak inflation […]
50 is the New 25 Earlier this month, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 50-basis point increase in the Fed Funds Rate to a new target range of 0.75-1.0%. This was the […]
I Got Five on It What went up, came back down. From the most recent S&P low on Mar 8, the index ripped higher by 11% in the span of three weeks. Investors let […]